It was Dicken’s novel, A Tale of Two Cities, that started with the words, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times……” The expression seems fitting for our economic momentary backdrop.
Yes, the S&P 500 and DJ Index have soared to all-time highs of late while our national debt is doing the same. It may not leave you scratching your head, but it sure leaves me scratching mine.
I make a case in my book, “Choose Stocks Wisely,” against painting a wide stroke over investing in common stocks as gambling. While the notion of stock investing being “gambling” is surely not as pervasive today as it was years ago with those who had closer family ties to the Stock Market Crash of 29 and the Great Depression years, there remains the perception among some that investing in individual stocks is equivalent to gambling.
I reason in my book for the necessity of corporations to provide jobs and therefore corporate jobs (and our economic welfare) depend on the willingness of enough people to invest their money into common stocks. Further, I argue that investing in common stocks is not a zero sum game but that businesses can and do create long-term wealth. All this said, I also do not believe that investing in stocks is for everyone and would never encourage anyone to start investing in stocks. That is a very personal decision and one associated with one’s own risk tolerance. The thing I do preach though is that a “real investment” is not one that ever disregards the financial health of the corporation. To disregard the financial health is to disregard what the balance sheet has to communicate.
Again, I find myself scratching my head over the existing stock market in light of threats to our overall financial well-being as a nation, certainly the expansion of our national debt being key. Have we so quickly forgotten the lessons of 2008 and 2009? Are we not disregarding what our national debt is telling us about dangerous behavior (over-levering the future) if we reward corporations today with sky-high stock prices (market capitalizations) where the balance sheets reveal poor financial health due to levering the future for a penny or two more earnings per share (EPS) next quarter?
The purpose of this post today is not to alarm. I understand it is a pretty sobering-type of post. But I feel it’s very important, especially in today’s stock market, to promote the balance sheet for its intended purpose, namely to reveal the financial condition of company shareholders. Sound financial health always matters, regardless of whether it “seems” unimportant for the moment.
Happy 2015, friends, and thanks again for all your support!
Paul,
Excellent post. 2008 and 2009 need to be remembered. Hopefully, lessons were learned.
May you and your family have a wonderful 2015.
Thank you, Bill.