Hey Friends. I’m praying for your health and safety during these very different times we are experiencing.
Recently, you may have read my blog post titled, “Frothy Market.” Today, you’ll find linked in this post a few articles that express the thinking that we are in an extremely exaggerated stock market. One article suggests that across asset classes, bubbles are forming in terms of loftiness of business valuations against business fundamentals. My personal thoughts more or less align with this take of asset bubbles everywhere.
Go here to read how 3 analysts view market outlook for 2021.
Go here to read about how British investor, Jeremy Grantham, sees the current mature market as in epic bubble territory.
Go here to read from Barron’s for a rather specific outlook commentary concerning the epic bubble Grantham believes we are now in.
If you’ve never heard the expression “keep some dry powder” relative to investing in the stock market, it refers to maintaining cash reserves to take advantage of low-priced stocks after they dip to low levels. If a person believes that we are in nosebleed territory relative to the bull market in stocks that has persisted for a decade, then having liquid resources set aside to take advantage should a harsh correction, or worse, transpire makes sense.
I personally don’t see a lot of value out there currently. Value stocks should fare better if a fall comes but a hard market correction would likely negatively impact virtually all equity prices as has been the case previously across history. And when businesses with good value get hit hard along with very overvalued companies, opportunity presents itself in those deep, deep values that result from indiscriminate selloffs.
My position on the balance sheet sounds like a broken record at this point — I know. But it is the only real financial report representing the company’s financial standing and therefore is the most critical financial report in my book (pun intended.) Further, the balance sheet tends to only gets its due in the eyes of stock market participants when risk is perceived as what must be analyzed properly prior to investing. This is the perception that occurs when the stock market decides it’s time to remove the excesses in valuation. And when that happens, just as the market can overdo it with pricing stocks higher when risk concerns take a back seat to a preoccupation with growth, the market usually overdoes it when it shifts its focus almost exclusively to risk concerns. I think we aren’t far from a time of deep correction where the balance sheet once again takes center stage as the report that it is intended to be, namely a statement of a company’s financial position and financial health, available for risk assessment.
Till next time,
Paul
As this is coming, if you made the greatest successes in the market after the 2009 bubble burst, then your book and investing techniques with your “Scorecard” is better than solid gold (pun intended). There should be a vast array of companies meeting the scorecard after the bubble bursts.
If history repeats, it would likely present significant opportunity. This seems a peculiar time across the history most of us have experienced, in my view. I’m concerned over issues we don’t seem willing to address, especially a debt crisis that requires that inflation stays so low that interest rates are kept near zero. Rising interest rates would expose the debt crisis for what it is. So, we are in rather unchartered waters and it is unclear how the new administration’s policies will fare for business, especially small businesses. As I’ve said many times, you have to be an optimist to invest in the stock market. It just seems a time for real patience until the fog lifts a good deal.