As time has passed since first publishing my book, “Choose Stocks Wisely,” in late 2013, a recurring question comes up. In fact, I’ve noted it coming up more often very recently from new purchasers of my book. I’ll express the question this way; “the screen from your book is producing almost no (to none) stocks.” I decided to share today my response to one reader over recent days because it reflects best what my thoughts are on this matter.
I believe there are likely at least two reasons in play:
-an extended bull market where very deep values are few and far between
-a growing group using my 7 criteria screen
Expounding on the second reason, by sharing my screen I gave away a trade secret, if you will. Of course, anyone could have previously used this particular screen but it’s unlikely that the exact set of screen filters (7 of the 63 total available finviz filters) and exact choices within the filters was being used; odds are astronomical against it. Since it delivered to me potentially off-radar, small inexpensive quality company names for further examination, it wouldn’t take many doing exactly what I was doing to bring discovery via that filter combination. In fact, in a question and answer chapter in my book, I posed the an answer to a hypothetical question about what might happen if enough people started using my personal unique methodology.
Considering this in addition to the matter of an overall lofty stock market, finding the deepest values means shopping harder.
I’d say the key filters I personally don’t want to relax are:
P/B
Quick Ratio
Current Ratio
Country
Relaxing the
P/E
P/S
Insider Transactions
might provide some options. These are not balance sheet (or regulatory — I. E. country) based criteria.
Finally, I’ve had all kinds of interesting discussions with readers. Some like the big company names but want to be sure of balance sheet strength. My screen again, even with relaxing per the above is unlikely in a market like the present one to produce many big names. Most will not be trading at less than book value, one of the screen filters. Remember, the Scorecard, via parts A and B, can probe for balance sheet quality on any company. That is, parts A and B can help scrutinize the balance sheet for health.
The real help from my book, in my view, is its contribution to balance sheet understanding and its emphasis on the balance sheet relative to minimizing risk. I believe the balance sheet is too often missing in the stock market’s attempts at company valuation.
Once again, I appreciate each one of you reading my posts. Thank you for all your support of my efforts.
See you next time.
Dear Dr. Allen,
Thanks for the response. Indeed, readjusting the filters gave some possible candidates for further analysis. Such candidates can be further down selected using the balance sheet analysis. As you mention, balance sheet analysis is the key guidance of your book to evaluate the stocks.
Regards,
Ahmet
Ahmet,
Good! Thanks for taking the time to comment and I hope the book’s theme will prove a useful tool among the tools in your investment toolbox.
Paul
Love your work. I use your fundamental analysis differently than mentioned in the book. I divide the stocks price by the buy at this price on your spreadsheet. . I use the result as a risk factor. with my technical analysis risk factor that I calculate. The result is quite good. For example I am up over 8% year to date with my entire portfolio. (not much gain but the biggest single stock loss is less than 1 percent).
Thanks for who you are, and sharing your talents..
Your friend in Christ
Keith Zornes
Dear Keith,
Thanks for sharing your novel application to complement your technical analysis. Indeed there are so many good approaches toward accomplishing favorable results. Setting emotion aside is not always easy when investing in stocks and I think it is the greatest enemy to successful decision-making. But emotion can take a back seat when you have a strategy that fits your style and makes sense to you. Thanks too for your encouraging manner.
May God bless you,
Paul
Thanks or the update and your book. I enjoyed your book and use the screen weekly probably read 2-3 years ago.
Haven’t pulled the trigger on any of the screen results yet almost did on RAIL it subsequently went up 50% and has since come back down some.
My basic thoughts we are in the 8th or 9th inning of this bull run and economic cycle. Your method will yield more results in a weaker market.
It is a good tool to have in the tool box but it won’t make the decision for you and there is always the potential for unforeseen risks. Thanks again.
David,
I believe you may well be right with your baseball analogy. And a weaker market will bring all valuations down; so, deep values will return when the market becomes a bear again. I just replied to Ahmet and used the very words you use with regard to a tool in the toolbox. And I appreciate your reminder concerning unforeseen risks. Indeed, the stock market is a risky venture and there’s no getting around it. Our best efforts must recognize that fact. The balance sheet can help with risk assessment but it can’t encompass the myriad of risk elements (both micro and macro) at work surrounding a company’s operations.
Thanks for the comments.
Paul