Wow, this bull stock market has just headed due north since the election, hasn’t it? One record is broken and another set with regularity. I know this doesn’t sound too positive, but it’s starting to remind me a bit of the year 2000 when stock prices were receiving full benefit of a doubt.
The screen I include in my book, “Choose Stocks Wisely,” has not been turning up many stocks for a spell now. My book has sold well and I’m so appreciative to you for supporting my writing effort. The screen I’ve used personally for a lot of years was shared in my book and there could conceivably be some impact assuming there are others who apply that same screen. But I think it’s plausible that stocks are simply “picked over” in this lofty stock market where more and more companies are being rewarded with higher valuations now.
I’m sure you’ve read that several big names have contributed a disproportionate effect of the stock market’s overall advance. However, I noted that a lot of the smaller companies have been going up in share price, some substantially, of late. That is, I’m seeing a broader participation occurring at this time.
Many believe the Trump tax proposals, intended to be kind to corporations, are having a significant effect in current stock price behavior. That’s hard to argue with, in my view. In that vein of thinking, small companies might stand to benefit very significantly since the impact to their earnings could be notable given that big margin improvements can have a huge impact when you are growing numbers from a small base.
Meanwhile, we are witnessing global concerns that potentially can raise the level of uncertainty. I must admit that I find the current market situation to be a hard one to piece together. For now, it seems the broader sentiment is to extend the benefit of the doubt.
Have a great weekend, friends.
Dr. Allen,
I thought I’d send you a screen shot of a chart I set up comparing the performance over the last year of the large cap S&P 100 (OEF) and the small cap S&P 600 (IJR). You will notice that following the election small cap stocks as a group literally rocketed higher for about a month into early December, and they have been consolidating in a range since then. Meanwhile the large caps have been moving higher at a more steady and slower rate. Both made a closing high around March 1, and small caps actually made a new high (1 point higher) this past week on 4/26/17.
Here is a link to the chart I set up https://www.screencast.com/t/T541varz313 (copy and paste as link not working)
Both groups seem to have experienced some selling from about March 1 to April 15 but over the last two weeks seem to recovering some. At some point I think they get back together it is just a question of when and how (whether large caps play catch up or the small caps retrace some / or a little bit of both).
Personally, I think there needs to be more positive sentiment for the market to have a significant correction. Morgan Stanley put out a report a couple of weeks ago predicting the S&P will reach 2700 next year (about 12% higher from this current level), and then that it will go on to 3000. Here’s the link http://www.investopedia.com/news/raging-bull-why-morgan-stanley-says-sp-may-rise-15/ (copy and paste). I’ve been trying to decide if this opinion is the first inkling of the type of euphoric sentiment I expect to see before we have a big correction (baring a geopolitical event).
Thanks for all your guidance and keeping us grounded.
Julian,
Thanks so much for that very helpful comment and insight.
Paul
Ah, looks like links work once posted.